Preseason Rankings
Loyola Chicago
Missouri Valley
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#109
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.6#349
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#207
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.8% 21.8% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 2.2% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 13.4
.500 or above 81.2% 84.0% 59.8%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 81.1% 65.3%
Conference Champion 26.1% 27.6% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.6% 7.0%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round20.3% 21.3% 12.9%
Second Round4.8% 5.1% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 88.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 9
Quad 410 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 266   UC Davis W 67-54 89%    
  Nov 08, 2019 102   @ Furman L 61-64 38%    
  Nov 12, 2019 348   Coppin St. W 75-54 98%    
  Nov 16, 2019 221   Saint Joseph's W 70-60 82%    
  Nov 20, 2019 253   IUPUI W 71-59 86%    
  Nov 25, 2019 79   South Florida L 61-64 40%    
  Dec 03, 2019 120   @ Ball St. L 64-66 41%    
  Dec 15, 2019 318   Norfolk St. W 72-55 93%    
  Dec 18, 2019 124   Vanderbilt W 63-62 53%    
  Dec 22, 2019 52   Davidson L 60-63 40%    
  Dec 30, 2019 199   @ Valparaiso W 61-58 61%    
  Jan 04, 2020 125   Missouri St. W 64-60 63%    
  Jan 07, 2020 145   @ Drake L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 11, 2020 182   Evansville W 69-60 77%    
  Jan 16, 2020 207   Southern Illinois W 66-56 79%    
  Jan 19, 2020 187   @ Illinois St. W 63-60 60%    
  Jan 22, 2020 158   Indiana St. W 69-62 71%    
  Jan 26, 2020 114   @ Northern Iowa L 58-61 41%    
  Jan 29, 2020 207   @ Southern Illinois W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 01, 2020 136   Bradley W 63-58 67%    
  Feb 05, 2020 158   @ Indiana St. W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 09, 2020 199   Valparaiso W 64-55 78%    
  Feb 12, 2020 182   @ Evansville W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 15, 2020 114   Northern Iowa W 61-58 61%    
  Feb 19, 2020 187   Illinois St. W 66-57 77%    
  Feb 22, 2020 125   @ Missouri St. L 61-63 45%    
  Feb 25, 2020 145   Drake W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 29, 2020 136   @ Bradley L 60-61 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 6.0 6.6 4.8 2.6 0.8 26.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 5.9 3.4 1.1 0.1 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.2 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.2 7.0 8.7 10.2 11.6 11.6 11.4 9.7 7.7 4.9 2.6 0.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
16-2 97.3% 4.8    4.5 0.3
15-3 85.5% 6.6    5.3 1.2 0.0
14-4 62.2% 6.0    3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 34.1% 3.9    1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1
12-6 10.8% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.1% 26.1 18.5 6.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 91.4% 69.1% 22.3% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 72.3%
17-1 2.6% 73.3% 55.1% 18.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 40.6%
16-2 4.9% 58.7% 49.0% 9.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 19.1%
15-3 7.7% 42.9% 39.0% 3.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.4 6.4%
14-4 9.7% 31.0% 29.6% 1.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.7 2.1%
13-5 11.4% 25.3% 25.0% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.5 0.3%
12-6 11.6% 18.3% 18.2% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 9.5 0.1%
11-7 11.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 9.9
10-8 10.2% 10.3% 10.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.1
9-9 8.7% 6.9% 6.9% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.1
8-10 7.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.6
7-11 5.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.0
6-12 3.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.8% 19.2% 1.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.9 5.3 5.0 3.6 1.9 0.5 79.2 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.3 15.0 10.0 32.6 25.4 6.0 11.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.7 42.4 9.1 3.0 42.4 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 5.6 41.2 2.9 11.8 2.9 41.2